• Suggestion and Evaluation for Prediction Method of Landslide Occurrence using SWAT Model and Climate Change Data: Case Study of Jungsan-ri Region in Mt. Jiri National Park
  • Kim Jisu1·Kim Minseok2*·Cho Youngchan2·Oh Hyunjoo2·Lee Choonoh2

  • 1Department of Social studies Education, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, Korea
    2Geologic Environment Division, Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources

  • SWAT model과 기후변화 자료를 이용한 산사태 예측 기법 제안과 평가: 지리산 국립공원 중산리 일대 사례연구
  • 김지수1·김민석2*·조용찬2·오현주2·이춘오2

  • 1전남대학교 일반대학원 사범대학 사회교육학과, 2한국지질자원연구원 지질환경연구본부

  • This article is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.


The purpose of this study is prediction of landslide occurrence reflecting the subsurface flow characteristics within the soil layer in the future due to climate change in a large scale watershed. To do this, we considered the infinite slope stability theory to evaluate the landslide occurrence with predicted soil moisture content by SWAT model based on monitored data (rainfall-soil moisture-discharge). The correlation between the SWAT model and the monitoring data was performed using the coefficient of determination (R2) and the model's efficiency index (Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency; NSE) and, an accuracy analysis of landslide prediction was performed using auROC (area under Receiver Operating Curve) analysis. In results comparing with the calculated discharge-soil moisture content by SWAT model vs. actual observation data, R2 was 0.9 and NSE was 0.91 in discharge and, R2 was 0.7 and NSE was 0.79 in soil moisture, respectively. As a result of performing infinite slope stability analysis in the area where landslides occurred in the past based on simulated data (SWAT analysis result of 0.7~0.8), AuROC showed 0.98, indicating that the suggested prediction method was resonable. Based on this, as a result of predicting the characteristics of landslide occurrence by 2050 using climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) data, it was calculated that four landslides could occur with a soil moisture content of more than 75% and rainfall over 250 mm/day during simulation. Although this study needs to be evaluated in various regions because of a case study, it was possible to determine the possibility of prediction through modeling of subsurface flow mechanism, one of the most important attributes in landslide occurrence.

Keywords: Landslide, SWAT model, Climate change data, subsurface flow, infinite slope theory

This Article

  • 2021; 26(6): 106-117

    Published on Dec 31, 2021

  • 10.7857/JSGE.2021.26.6.106
  • Received on Dec 1, 2021
  • Revised on Dec 2, 2021
  • Accepted on Dec 14, 2021

Correspondence to

  • Kim Minseok
  • Geologic Environment Division, Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources

  • E-mail: minseok_kim@kigam.re.kr