Development of the Autoregressive and Cross-Regressive Model for Groundwater Level Prediction at Muan Coastal Aquifer in Korea

doi:10.7857/JSGE.2014.19.4.023

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2014 Vol.19, Issue 4 Preview Page Next Page

Development of the Autoregressive and Cross-Regressive Model for Groundwater Level Prediction at Muan Coastal Aquifer in Korea 전남 무안 해안 대수층에서의 지하수위 예측을 위한 자기교차회귀모형 구축: 김현정;여인욱;
Kim, Hyun Jung;Yeo, In Wook;

30 September 2014. pp. 23 ~ 30

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Abstract

Coastal aquifer in Muan, Jeonnam, has experienced heavy seawater intrusion caused by the extraction of a substantial amount of groundwater for the agricultural purpose throughout the year. It was observed that groundwater level dropped below sea level due to heavy pumping during a dry season, which could accelerate seawater intrusion. Therefore, water level needs to be monitored and managed to prevent further seawater intrusion. The purpose of this study is to develop the autoregressive-cross-regressive (ARCR) models that can predict the present or future groundwater level using its own previous values and pumping events. The ARCR model with pumping and water level data of the proceeding five hours (i.e., the model order of five) predicted groundwater level better than that of the model orders of ten and twenty. This was contrary to expectation that higher orders do increase the coefficient of determination ($R^2$) as a measure of the model's goodness. It was found that the ARCR model with order five was found to make a good prediction of next 48 hour groundwater levels after the start of pumping with $R^2$ higher than 0.9.

Keywords

Groundwater level prediction;Multivariate time series model;Autoregressive-cross-regressive model;Seawater intrusion;Coastal aquifer;

References

Abarca, E., Vazquez-Sune, E., Carrera, J., Capino B., Gamez, D., and Batlle, F., 2006, Optimal design of measures to correct seawater intrusion, Water Resour. Res., 42(9), W09415. doi:10.1029/2005WR004524.10.1029/2005WR004524
Bierkens, M.E.P., Knotters, M., and van Geer, F.C., 1999, Calibration of transfer function-noise models to sparsely or irregularly observed time serise, Water Resour. Res., 35(6), 1741-1750.10.1029/1999WR900083
Box, G.E.P. and Jenkins, G.M., 1976, Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control, Holden-Day, Oakland, California, 579 p.
Choi, H.M., Lee, J.Y., Ha, K.C., and Kim, G.P., 2011, The study on time series analysis of groundwater data and groundwater recharge in Jeju island, J. Eng. Geol., 21(4), 337-348.10.9720/kseg.2011.21.4.337
Choi, S.Y., Han, K.Y., and Kim, B.H., 2012, Comparison of different multiple linear regression models for real-time flood stage forecasting, J. Kor. Soc. Civil Eng., 32(1), 9-20.
Davis, C.D., 1986, Statistics and Data Analysis in Geology, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 646 p.
Ha, K.C., Ko, K.S., Koh, D.C., Yum, B.W., and Lee, K.K., 2006, Time series analysis of the responses of the goundwater levels at multi-depth wells according to the river stage fluctuations, Econ. Environ. Geol., 39(3), 269-284.
Kim, C.R. and Kang, K.S., 2010, Recession Analysis, Kyowoo Press, Seoul, 505 p.
Kim, D.S. and Kang, N.J., 2008, Recession Analysis: Basic and Application, Nanam Press, Paju, Gyeonggi-do, 409 p.
Kim, J.H., Lee, J.H., Cheong, T.J., Kim, R.H., Koh, D.C., Ryu, J.S., and Chang, H.W., 2005, Use of time series analysis for the identification of tidal effect on groundwater in the coastal area of Kimje, Korea, J. Hydrol., 300(1), 188-198.10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.06.004
Kim, S.M. and An, B.I., 2011, Estimation of the change water level using regression anaylsis, J. Kor. Soc. Agri. Eng., 53(6), 51-58.
Knotters, M., and Van Walsum, P.E.V., 1997, Estimating fluctuation quantities from time series of water-table depths using models with a stochastic component, J. Hydrol., 197(1), 25-46.
Korea Rural Community Corporation, 2005, A Study on Use of Data Obtained from Monitoring Network for Groundwater Management, 271 p.
Kresic, N., 1997, Quantitative Solutions in Hydrogeology and Groundwater Modeling, Lewis Publishers, New York, 461 p.
Lee, J.Y. and Lee, K.K., 2002, A comparative study on characteristics of water level responses to rainfall in the two aquifer systems, J. Soil Groundw. Environ., 7(1), 3-14.
Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 2005, A Report on Rural Area's Groundwater Management at Muan-gun, Jeonnam, 386 p.
Park, H.Y., 2008, A Study on Seawater Instrusion in Coastal Fractured Rock Aquifer using Time Series Analysis, Geophysical Logging and Flowmeter Test in Muan, Jeonnam, M.Sc. dissertation, Chonnam National University, 66 p.
Park, H.Y., Jang, K.Y., Ju, J.W., and Yeo, I.W., 2012, Hydrogelogical characterization of seawater intrusion in tidally-forced coastal fractured bedrock aquifer, J. Hydrol., 446-447, 77-89.10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.04.033
Salas, J.D. and Obeysekera, J.T.B., 1982, ARMA model identification of hydrologic time series, Water Resour. Res., 18(4), 2011-202.
Wittenberg, H., 1999, Watershed groundwater balance estimation using streamflow recession analysis and baseflow separation, J. Hydrol., 219(1), 20-33.10.1016/S0022-1694(99)00040-2
Yeom, J.G., 2005, Linear Regression Analysis, Free Academy, Paju, Gyeonggi-do, 503 p.
Yi, M.J. and Lee, K.K., 2004, Transfer function-noise modeling of irregularly observed groundwater heads using precipitation data, J. Hydol., 288(3-4), 272-287.10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.10.020

Information

Publisher :The Korean Society of Soil and Groundwater Environment
Publisher(Ko) :한국지하수토양환경학회
Journal Title :Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
Journal Title(Ko) :지하수토양환경
Volume : 19
No :4
Pages :23 ~ 30
DOI :https://doi.org/10.7857/JSGE.2014.19.4.023

[1] Abarca, E., Vazquez-Sune, E., Carrera, J., Capino B., Gamez, D., and Batlle, F., 2006, Optimal design of measures to correct seawater intrusion, Water Resour. Res., 42(9), W09415. doi:10.1029/2005WR004524.10.1029/2005WR004524

[2] Bierkens, M.E.P., Knotters, M., and van Geer, F.C., 1999, Calibration of transfer function-noise models to sparsely or irregularly observed time serise, Water Resour. Res., 35(6), 1741-1750.10.1029/1999WR900083

[3] Box, G.E.P. and Jenkins, G.M., 1976, Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control, Holden-Day, Oakland, California, 579 p.

[4] Choi, H.M., Lee, J.Y., Ha, K.C., and Kim, G.P., 2011, The study on time series analysis of groundwater data and groundwater recharge in Jeju island, J. Eng. Geol., 21(4), 337-348.10.9720/kseg.2011.21.4.337

[5] Choi, S.Y., Han, K.Y., and Kim, B.H., 2012, Comparison of different multiple linear regression models for real-time flood stage forecasting, J. Kor. Soc. Civil Eng., 32(1), 9-20.

[6] Davis, C.D., 1986, Statistics and Data Analysis in Geology, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 646 p.

[7] Ha, K.C., Ko, K.S., Koh, D.C., Yum, B.W., and Lee, K.K., 2006, Time series analysis of the responses of the goundwater levels at multi-depth wells according to the river stage fluctuations, Econ. Environ. Geol., 39(3), 269-284.

[8] Kim, C.R. and Kang, K.S., 2010, Recession Analysis, Kyowoo Press, Seoul, 505 p.

[9] Kim, D.S. and Kang, N.J., 2008, Recession Analysis: Basic and Application, Nanam Press, Paju, Gyeonggi-do, 409 p.

[10] Kim, J.H., Lee, J.H., Cheong, T.J., Kim, R.H., Koh, D.C., Ryu, J.S., and Chang, H.W., 2005, Use of time series analysis for the identification of tidal effect on groundwater in the coastal area of Kimje, Korea, J. Hydrol., 300(1), 188-198.10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.06.004

[11] Kim, S.M. and An, B.I., 2011, Estimation of the change water level using regression anaylsis, J. Kor. Soc. Agri. Eng., 53(6), 51-58.

[12] Knotters, M., and Van Walsum, P.E.V., 1997, Estimating fluctuation quantities from time series of water-table depths using models with a stochastic component, J. Hydrol., 197(1), 25-46.

[13] Korea Rural Community Corporation, 2005, A Study on Use of Data Obtained from Monitoring Network for Groundwater Management, 271 p.

[14] Kresic, N., 1997, Quantitative Solutions in Hydrogeology and Groundwater Modeling, Lewis Publishers, New York, 461 p.

[15] Lee, J.Y. and Lee, K.K., 2002, A comparative study on characteristics of water level responses to rainfall in the two aquifer systems, J. Soil Groundw. Environ., 7(1), 3-14.

[16] Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 2005, A Report on Rural Area's Groundwater Management at Muan-gun, Jeonnam, 386 p.

[17] Park, H.Y., 2008, A Study on Seawater Instrusion in Coastal Fractured Rock Aquifer using Time Series Analysis, Geophysical Logging and Flowmeter Test in Muan, Jeonnam, M.Sc. dissertation, Chonnam National University, 66 p.

[18] Park, H.Y., Jang, K.Y., Ju, J.W., and Yeo, I.W., 2012, Hydrogelogical characterization of seawater intrusion in tidally-forced coastal fractured bedrock aquifer, J. Hydrol., 446-447, 77-89.10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.04.033

[19] Salas, J.D. and Obeysekera, J.T.B., 1982, ARMA model identification of hydrologic time series, Water Resour. Res., 18(4), 2011-202.

[20] Wittenberg, H., 1999, Watershed groundwater balance estimation using streamflow recession analysis and baseflow separation, J. Hydrol., 219(1), 20-33.10.1016/S0022-1694(99)00040-2

[21] Yeom, J.G., 2005, Linear Regression Analysis, Free Academy, Paju, Gyeonggi-do, 503 p.

[22] Yi, M.J. and Lee, K.K., 2004, Transfer function-noise modeling of irregularly observed groundwater heads using precipitation data, J. Hydol., 288(3-4), 272-287.10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.10.020

Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment ISSN:1598-6438(Print) 2287-8831(Online) 지하수토양환경

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