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2021 Vol.26, Issue 6 Preview Page
Suggestion and Evaluation for Prediction Method of Landslide Occurrence using SWAT Model and Climate Change Data: Case Study of Jungsan-ri Region in Mt. Jiri National Park

SWAT model과 기후변화 자료를 이용한 산사태 예측 기법 제안과 평가: 지리산 국립공원 중산리 일대 사례연구

Jisu Kim1
,
Minseok Kim2*
,
Youngchan Cho2
,
Hyunjoo Oh2
,
Choonoh Lee2
김 지수1
,
김 민석2*
,
조 용찬2
,
오 현주2
,
이 춘오2
1Department of Social studies Education, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, Korea
2Geologic Environment Division, Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources
1전남대학교 일반대학원 사범대학 사회교육학과
2한국지질자원연구원 지질환경연구본부
*Corresponding Author
31 December 2021. pp. 106-117
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Abstract

The purpose of this study is prediction of landslide occurrence reflecting the subsurface flow characteristics within the soil layer in the future due to climate change in a large scale watershed. To do this, we considered the infinite slope stability theory to evaluate the landslide occurrence with predicted soil moisture content by SWAT model based on monitored data (rainfall-soil moisture-discharge). The correlation between the SWAT model and the monitoring data was performed using the coefficient of determination (R2) and the model's efficiency index (Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency; NSE) and, an accuracy analysis of landslide prediction was performed using auROC (area under Receiver Operating Curve) analysis. In results comparing with the calculated discharge-soil moisture content by SWAT model vs. actual observation data, R2 was 0.9 and NSE was 0.91 in discharge and, R2 was 0.7 and NSE was 0.79 in soil moisture, respectively. As a result of performing infinite slope stability analysis in the area where landslides occurred in the past based on simulated data (SWAT analysis result of 0.7~0.8), AuROC showed 0.98, indicating that the suggested prediction method was resonable. Based on this, as a result of predicting the characteristics of landslide occurrence by 2050 using climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) data, it was calculated that four landslides could occur with a soil moisture content of more than 75% and rainfall over 250 mm/day during simulation. Although this study needs to be evaluated in various regions because of a case study, it was possible to determine the possibility of prediction through modeling of subsurface flow mechanism, one of the most important attributes in landslide occurrence.

Keywords
Landslide
SWAT model
Climate change data
subsurface flow
infinite slope theory
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Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Society of Soil and Groundwater Environment
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국지하수토양환경학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
  • Journal Title(Ko) :지하수토양환경
  • Volume : 26
  • No :6
  • Pages :106-117
  • Received Date : 2021-12-01
  • Revised Date : 2021-12-02
  • Accepted Date : 2021-12-14
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.7857/JSGE.2021.26.6.106
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