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Evaluation of the Past and Future Droughts using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Effective Drought Index (EDI) in the Western Region of Chungnam Province

SPI와 EDI를 이용한 충남 서부지역 과거와 미래 가뭄 평가

Hyowon An12
,
Kyoochul Ha12*
안 효원12
,
하 규철12*
1Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources
2Department of Mineral & Groundwater Resources, University of Science and Technology
1한국지질자원연구원 지질환경연구본부 지하수연구센터
2과학기술연합대학원대학교 광물·지하수자원학
*Corresponding Author
31 December 2020. pp. 14-27
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Abstract

The drought has occurred from the past, and has caused a lot of damage. It is important to analyze the past droughts and predict them in the future. In this study, the temperature and precipitation of the past and the future from climate change RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were analyzed for Seosan and Boryeong in the western region of Chungnam Province, which is considered as a drought-prone area on the Korean Peninsula. Comparing Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Effective Drought Index (EDI) based on the past droughts, EDI was verified to be more suitable for the drought assessment. According to RCP 4.5, the frequency and intensity of droughts in the early future (2021~2060) were expected to increase and to be stronger. Particularly, severe droughts were predicted for a long time from 2022 to 2026, and from 2032 to 2039. Droughts were expected to decrease in the late future (2061~2100). From RCP 8.5, drought occurrences were predicted to increase, but the intensity of the droughts were expected to decrease in the future. As a result of evaluation of the frequencies of droughts by seasons, the region would be most affected by fall drought in the early future and by spring drought in the late future according to RCP 4.5. In the case of RCP 8.5, the seasonal effects were not clearly distinguished. These results suggest that droughts in the future do not have any tendency, but continue to occurr as in the past. Therefore, the measures and efforts to secure water resources and reinforcement of water supply facilities should be prepared to cope with droughts.

Keywords
Drought
Climate change
Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
Effective Drought Index (EDI)
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Information
  • Publisher :The Korean Society of Soil and Groundwater Environment
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국지하수토양환경학회
  • Journal Title :Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
  • Journal Title(Ko) :지하수토양환경
  • Volume : 25
  • No :4
  • Pages :14-27
  • Received Date : 2020-09-22
  • Revised Date : 2020-09-22
  • Accepted Date : 2020-11-05
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.7857/JSGE.2020.25.4.014
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